The Margin

Artesys News & Insights

Weekly Commentary 9/30/16

The MSCI ACWI IMI global investable equity index finished the quarter up 5.57%. The S&P 500 finished up 3.85%. MSCI EAFE finished up 6.43%. The Barclays US Agg Bond Index finished up 0.46% while 10-year Treasury yields rose from 1.49% to 1.60%. Large Growth, Mid-Cap Growth, Mid-Cap Value, Small Value and Small Growth finished ahead of the market.

 

We continue to see signs of moderate growth in the economy. The September release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book described modest growth in most districts, tight labor and real estate markets, small price pressures, and modest growth in wages and employments. The federal government has collected an all-time record high in tax revenue, unemployment is 4.9%, 2nd quarter GDP was 1.4%, inflation as measured by Core CPI is 2.3%, US households net worth is at the highest level ever while household leverage has declined to 15%, and housing supply remains tight at 4.6 months inventory. From a year ago, oil is up 7%, Job Openings have increased 9% (42% of St Louis employers plan to add jobs over the next 12 months), M2 money supply has increased 8% while commercial and industrial loans are up 9%, personal income rose 3%, retail sales increased 1.9%, existing home sales rose 0.8%, housing starts increased 0.9%, single family building permits rose 3.6%, and housing completions are 8.3% higher.